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Forex Trading Strategy Using Price Action

NickB’s Price Action Strategy

Welcome to the latest edition of the NickB trading Method (also known as NickB’s Price Action Strategy).

My Forex Trading Strategy revolves around the principles of price action analysis. This page explains my Forex strategy in more detail, so you can understand it and trade it successfully too.

Keeping Your Trading Simple

The key principle of my Price Action Strategy is to keep things simple. I am against over complicating trading. In my opinion, the simpler your method is, the more effective you will be.

With my Price Action trading strategy I aim to keep my charts as clean as possible. In fact, the only thing I place on my Candlestick charts are a few Support and Resistance lines. My method is based around reading and understanding price by reading Candlesticks and using Support and Resistance lines. This means my method is very simple to use and relatively stress free. Here’s a picture showing you my EUR/USD 1hr chart.

I find that this is the best Forex strategy as the chart is clear and easy to understand and there is little to no noise distracting you from the price. This is one of the benefits of using aForex system like this.

Some trading strategies are an absolute mess of indicators. This is not best Forex strategy as it is overly complicated and confusing.

Why would you want to trade like this?

Indicators Required for this Trading Strategy

So to trade my Forex Trading Strategy I use no indicators.

I generally don’t like using Forex indicators, as I find the data worthless, as they lag current price. If you want to be in the moment and take trades based on what’s happening right now then you have to base trades on current Price Action.

Which Currency Pairs can you Trade Successfully using Forex Price Action?

My Forex Trading Strategy will work on any currency pair, which is free floating and regularly traded.

This is because my method is based on Price Action. This means you can use this trading strategy to successfully trade any currency pair you find on your Forex trading platform.

That being said, I personally prefer to concentrate on just a few currency pairs at any one time. I find it too distracting to try and keep track of too many pairs at once.

I mainly trade the EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD. I generally trade these currency pairs as they are the most predictable and their movement is smoother. You don’t find random jumps unless there’s been some highly unexpected news, which is pretty rare.

If you prefer to trade a particular Forex session such as the London, New York and Asian session then choose the main currency pairs that are active at those times.

Price Action Trading Works Better on Longer Time Frames

Since this Forex Trading System is based on Price Action you can trade any time frame from one hour and above.

I mainly concentrate on the one hour, four hour and daily charts. These are consistently the most profitable, as the patterns are easier to spot and lead to more consistent profits.

Types of Price Action Analysis

Primarily, I use two forms of Price Action Analysis:

1. Support and Resistance lines.
2. Candlestick analysis.

How to Enter Trades using My Forex Trading Strategy

Due to the recent economic uncertainty and countries losing their credit ratings etc, currencies aren’t trading as they normally would. This has led to me to trade reversals exclusively.

I look for strong reversal setups forming on top of my Support and Resistance areas. Once a pattern forms, that indicates a reversal, I set up a trigger price and enter the trade. I take several trades each week and average at least an 80% win rate.

Trading Strategy Targets and Stops

Targets: I aim for roughly 30 – 50 pips per trade.
Stops: I place my stop loss 15 – 30 pips away from entry.

These targets and stops differ during different market conditions so please check the bottom of the Taking Trades section for the most up to date information.

How to Adjust the Trading Strategy Around News Releases

I use the Forex Calendar from ForexFactory to keep track of Economic data, which is due to be released on the pairs I trade.

If there’s any high impact (red/orange) news due to be released for the American Dollar, the Euro, the Canadian Dollar, or the Australian Dollar, then I stay out of the Forex Market. I do not want to enter a trade 30 minutes preceding the news, or after the news.

As you can see, my Forex Trading Strategy is straightforward and will allow you to make pips in any market conditions, with almost any Forex currency pair.

FX Strategy Insights

This week we take a look at one of the world’s most recognised FX traders.

John Taylor is the CEO and Chairman of a hedge fund firm called FX Concepts which he founded in 1981. FX Concepts manages currencies and FX exposures for institutional clients through both overlay and absolute return strategies. Their website states that they “employ a unique methodology integrating the study of cycles, quantitative model-building, and technical forecasting.”

FX Concepts runs the world’s largest Currency Hedge Fund and is certainly one of the “smart money” investors to keep an eye on. All up Taylor’s firm manages over US$4.5 billion in FX funds.

BusinessWeek reported last week that the FX Concepts has recently exited all its bets on commodity based currencies based on the view that these currencies will fail to appreciate as slowing Asian growth dampens metal prices. The “China growth story” has been a concern of ours for quite some time and regular FX Strategy readers will be familiar with our thinking and strategy on this topic. So seeing the “smart money” heading for the exits should be a wake up call for any remaining China bulls.

On a more positive note, Taylor is bullish on the USD and the US economy. With improving US growth and consumer spending Taylor thinks currencies that will benefit from America’s improving fortunes could do well – he highlighted the CAD and MXN as particularly leveraged to this scenario.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, FX Concepts employs technical forecasting in their strategy. One example of this in action can best be explained by this recent quote from Taylor: “The Yen is an interesting side-line. It will be hurt by a slowing China, but so much of the Yen is based on the flows in and out of the country for investment reasons. Over the last 7 to 10 years, the Yen is often weak in the month of March and then in the Month of April it starts to strengthen.”

This is a very interesting pattern that Taylor has identified and for FX Strategists it’s certainly worth further investigation.

Support and Resistance Trading Strategy

Support and Resistance Forex trading strategy — is a widely used trading system based on the horizontal levels of support and resistance. These levels are formed by the candlesticks' highs and lows. A break-through of these levels after a period of consolidation gives a signal for a trend. This strategy doesn't require any chart indicators except for the ability to draw lines (at least imaginary).

Features

• Well-defined low stop-loss.
• Relatively high success rate.
• Unclear target levels.

How to Trade?

1. Support level is formed by the lows of two or more candlestick bars that form a rather straight horizontal line with no lower lows between them.
2. Resistance level is formed by the highs of two or more candlestick bars that form a rather straight horizontal line with no higher highs between them.
3. Consolidation is a period without any trend, forming near support or resistance level, with the relatively small candlestick bodies.
4. A close below the support level signals a short position.
5. A close above the resistance level signals a long position.
6. Stop-loss is set to the low of the previous candlestick (for the long positions) or to the high of the previous candlestick (for the short positions).
7. Take-profit can be set relatively to the stop-loss or as a trailing stop of some sort.

Example

Support set-up:

Resistance set-up:

A period of consolidation is clearly seen on both example charts. In both cases the support/resistance level is formed by two candles on a rather short period. Stop-loss is placed close to the entry level. Take-profit couldn't be clearly set at the position entry moment, but a risk/reward ratio of not less than 1:2 could be used easily. If you are having trouble detecting support and resistance levels on the chart you can use our free MT4/MT5 indicators for that: Support and Resistance or TzPivots.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Important News Trading Strategy

Important Forex News trading strategy — developed specifically to trade Forex news with as little risk as possible. It can be used only for important Forex news releases such as U.S. GDP, non-farm payrolls and interest rate decisions. Although all currency pairs react on such news, the USD-based currency pairs show the best result.

Features

• Trades will have fundamental background.
• Not very hard to set up.
• High success rate.
• Important news events are quite rare.
• High volatility and spread widening during important news releases.

How to Trade?

1. Choose an important news release that has an effect on the Forex pairs.
2. For EUR/USD I recommend: U.S. GDP, U.S. nonfarm payrolls, U.S. interest rate decisions, Eurozone interest rate decisions and U.S. budget deficit reports.
3. Enter both Long and Short positions approximately 30 minutes before the releases (to protect yourself from slippage and ungodly spreads).
4. Stop-loss for the Long position should be set around the 1-2 hour local minimum.
5. Stop-loss for the Song position should be set around the 1-2 hour local maximum.
6. Take-profit for both positions should be set at least to twice the level of stop-loss. I'd recommend even setting it to 3 * SL.
7. Don't forget to cancel the untriggered orders after the news went out.

Example

The example chart depicts EUR/USD M15 behavior during the interest rate decision announcement by the FOMC on September 23rd, 2009. Both stop-loss levels are clearly visible in this situation. The conservative take-profit levels are easily hit. Only Long position triggers a TP, while the Short one is closed by SL.

It's possible to trade such news with the pending orders for more potential profit (setting entry points at the same levels as the stop-loss levels are set for the opposite position). But it's more risky.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Scalping Forex Strategy

Scalping Forex strategy — is a simple trading system that relies on very close targets, extremely low stop-loss and a lot of positions opened and closed during a short period of time. Not all Forex brokers allow scalping and not all who allow are good to scalp with. Scalping may not be suitable for all traders and, personally, I do not recommend scalping to anyone. The most simple scalping Forex trading system is presented here.

Features

• Nice profits for lucky (intuitive) traders.
• No need to pay attention to technical, fundamental or any other analysis.
• Spreads eat a big part of profit.
• Reward/risk ratio is usually too low.
• Not all Forex brokers allow scalping.
• Requires a lot of time for trading and monitoring.

How to Trade?

1. Currency pairs with a lot of intraday volatility but low spreads are recommended (EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are good examples).
2. M1 timeframe or lower is optimal.
3. Optimal trading time is during the European/U.S. and U.S./Asian trading sessions' intersection.
4. Prepare to enter the positions by closely monitoring the market activity for 5–15 minutes.
5. When you think that you "caught" the current short-term trend, enter a position.
6. Set stop-loss to about 10 pips.
7. The general rule for target profit is one or one-and-a-half spreads. Setting take-profit to such low levels (2–5 pips) is almost impossible, so you'll need to monitor the position to see the target profit and close it manually.

Example

No example chart is present for this trading system as there is nothing important to be shown on the chart. Let's view the following examples.

1. You open Long position on EUR/USD with 10 pips stop-loss and target for 4 pips of profit. After 20 second the position reaches 4 pips of profit and you close it.
2. You open Short position on GBP/USD with 10 pips stop-loss and target for 4 pips of profit. After 3–4 minutes the trend unexpectedly reverses and the position is closed by stop-loss.
3. You open Short position on USD/JPY with 10 pips stop-loss and target for 3 pips of profit. After about 1 minute the position reaches 4 pips of profit and you close it.
4. You open Long position on EUR/JPY with 10 pips stop-loss and target for 5 pips of profit. After 5 seconds the price spikes and the position reaches 12 pips of profit and you close it.
5. That's 10 pips of profit in less than 6 minutes. Of course, it's purely hypothetical.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Martingale Trading System

Martingale trading system — is based on the popular betting (gambling) system of the 18th century France. The main principle of this system is to double the bet each time you lose so that if you win (considering a 100% bet win/loss each time) you recover a previous loss and will also gain the first bet amount. If one had an infinite amount of money, this strategy would be a sure-fire thing as with the infinite amount of bets the necessary result will with probability 1 eventually come. The problem is that no trader possesses an infinite wealth and thus utilizing this strategy eventually leads to a wiped account. Although it's a very popular Forex trading system and is used in many paid Forex expert advisors, I strongly don't recommend trading with it.

Features

• Theoretically bullet-proof system.
• Practically unsound.
• Reward/risk ratio can reach extremely low values.

How to Trade?

1. Any currency pair and timeframe will work.
2. Determine your basic position size.
3. Place an order in a random direction (Buy or Sell) with some fixed stop-loss and the same take-profit.
4. After the SL or TP is triggered you either win or lose.
5. If you win, set the position size to the initial and go the step 3.
6. If you lose, double the position size and go to step 3.
7. If you have infinite trading account balance, eventually you'll win a lot. If your account balance is limited you'll lose it eventually.

Example

No example chart is present for this trading system as there is nothing important to be shown on the chart. Let's view the following example.

1. You start with $10,000 account and can trade with mini Forex lots (0.1 of the standard lot) and decide to trade on EUR/USD.
2. You define your basic position size as 0.1 lots.
3. You decide to go Long setting stop-loss at 40 pips (or $4). The take-profit is set to the same value.
4. You lose the position. Now your account balance is $9,996.
5. You double your next position size to 0.2 lots, so that using the same stop-loss and take-profit levels you risk $8 and also have a chance to win $8. You decide to change the position's direction and go Short.
6. You win and now you've recovered lost $4 and also won $4. Your account balance is $10,004.
7. You return your position to initial 0.1 lots and start over.
8. With $10,000 account balance and $4 basic risk value you'll have to lose 11 positions in a row to wipe your account. You'll have to win 250 positions to double your balance.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Inside Bar Trading Strategy

Inside Bar Forex trading strategy — a popular system with a nice win/loss ratio but a rather rare occurrence of the proper entry conditions. It doesn't require any indicators and can be applied on the bare candlestick or bar chart.

Features

• Entry conditions are clearly defined.
• Very simple bare chart system.
• High success rate.
• Rare occurrence of the proper conditions.

How to Trade?

1. An inside bar is a bar or a candlestick that completely fits into the first preceding bar (also called a "container" bar), including its High and Low values.
2. If the current bar has an index of 0 and the previous bar has an index of 1 then the following conditions should be true for the current bar to count as an inside bar: High[0] < High[1] and Low[0] > Low[1]. Mind the strict "greater" and "less" operators.
3. Bearish inside bar that follows a bullish "container" bar on the clearly visible uptrend signals a Short position.
4. Bullish inside bar that follows a bearish "container" bar on the clearly visible downtrend signals a Long position.
5. Stop-loss is set to the Low of the "container" bar for the Long positions and to the High of the "container" bar for the Short positions.
6. Take-profit should be set to the nearest support/resistance level formed by the trend.

Example

A bullish inside bar after a downtrend is shown on the example chart. The inside bar is easy to identify and the stop-loss level is rather conservative here. The target was set to the resistance level formed by the previous downtrend. As you can see, the currency pair rate reached the take-profit level without any problems.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Martingale Trading System

Martingale trading system — is based on the popular betting (gambling) system of the 18th century France. The main principle of this system is to double the bet each time you lose so that if you win (considering a 100% bet win/loss each time) you recover a previous loss and will also gain the first bet amount. If one had an infinite amount of money, this strategy would be a sure-fire thing as with the infinite amount of bets the necessary result will with probability 1 eventually come. The problem is that no trader possesses an infinite wealth and thus utilizing this strategy eventually leads to a wiped account. Although it's a very popular Forex trading system and is used in many paid Forex expert advisors, I strongly don't recommend trading with it.

Features

• Theoretically bullet-proof system.
• Practically unsound.
• Reward/risk ratio can reach extremely low values.

How to Trade?

1. Any currency pair and timeframe will work.
2. Determine your basic position size.
3. Place an order in a random direction (Buy or Sell) with some fixed stop-loss and the same take-profit.
4. After the SL or TP is triggered you either win or lose.
5. If you win, set the position size to the initial and go the step 3.
6. If you lose, double the position size and go to step 3.
7. If you have infinite trading account balance, eventually you'll win a lot. If your account balance is limited you'll lose it eventually.

Example

No example chart is present for this trading system as there is nothing important to be shown on the chart. Let's view the following example.

1. You start with $10,000 account and can trade with mini Forex lots (0.1 of the standard lot) and decide to trade on EUR/USD.
2. You define your basic position size as 0.1 lots.
3. You decide to go Long setting stop-loss at 40 pips (or $4). The take-profit is set to the same value.
4. You lose the position. Now your account balance is $9,996.
5. You double your next position size to 0.2 lots, so that using the same stop-loss and take-profit levels you risk $8 and also have a chance to win $8. You decide to change the position's direction and go Short.
6. You win and now you've recovered lost $4 and also won $4. Your account balance is $10,004.
7. You return your position to initial 0.1 lots and start over.
8. With $10,000 account balance and $4 basic risk value you'll have to lose 11 positions in a row to wipe your account. You'll have to win 250 positions to double your balance.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

MACD Divergence Trading Strategy

MACD Divergence Forex trading strategy — is one of the quite reliable systems and is based on the standard MACD indicator. Actually, the divergence between MACD line and the currency pair rate is the basic signal in this strategy. This system has rather fuzzy entry and exit points, but it's easy to spot the signal and the trades can be rather profitable, as it helps to catch the pull-backs and the trend reversals.

Features

• Easy to spot signals.
• Only one standard indicator used.
• Good profit potential on positions.
• Take-profit and stop-loss levels are rather indefinite.
• Rare occurrence on the long-term charts.

Strategy Set-Up

1. Any currency pair and timeframe should work. But shorter timeframes are recommended, as they yield more opportunities.
2. Add MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) indicator to the chart, set Fast EMA period to 12, Slow EMA period to 26 and MACD SMA to 9; apply to Close.

Entry Conditions

Enter Long position when the price shows a bearish trend and MACD indicator shows a bullish trend.

Enter Short position when the price shows a bullish trend and MACD indicator shows a bearish trend.

Exit Conditions

Set stop-loss to the nearby support level, when going Long, or to the nearby resistance level, when going Short.

Set take-profit to the next resistance level for Long positions, or to the next support level for Short positions.

If the system generates a reversal signal — close the previous position first.

Example

The example chart is EUR/USD currency pair at M15 timeframe. As seen on the chart, the price line was declining in a bearish trend, while the MACD indicator was rising in a bullish trend during rather long period. The entry point is marked at the level, where it's became clear that the downtrend is over on the currency pair chart. Stop-loss was set to the support level formed by the double-bottom chart pattern, while the take-profit level was set to the level of resistance formed by bearish trend's short-lived pull-backs. The TP/SL ratio is rather good here — about 1.5.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.

Simple Price Based Trading System

Simple Price Based Forex trading system — an interesting system that was developed by one of the Forex traders recently. It works for any pair (though, EUR/USD is recommended) and in all market conditions. No indicators are required to trade using this system. All you need is the ability to set up the pending orders.

Features

• Position-based trading for any state of the market.
• Trailing stop protects profit.
• Lack of statistical proof.

How to Trade?

1. Higher timeframe chart is recommended as each trading setup requires some calculations based on the latest bar.
2. Key number should be calculated first. It's based on the current price. For the quotes with 4 digits after a dot the key value is the current price multiplied by 10 and then rounded. For the quotes with 2 digits after a dot the key value is the current price divided by 10 and the rounded.
3. Place pending Buy order at Current Price + (2 * Key value).
4. Place pending Sell order at Current Price - (2 * Key value).
5. Place stop-loss for pending Buy order at Open Price - (2 * Key value).
6. Place stop-loss for pending Sell order at Open Price + (2 * Key value).
7. Take-profit for both orders is calculated similarly to the key value but the current price should be multiplied by 100 for the quotes with 4 digits after a dot and shouldn't be divided for the quotes with 2 digits after a dot. In both cases the values should be rounded.
8. Trailing stop is also applied to the orders and is set to 2.5 * Key value.
9. Don't forget to cancel the untriggered orders after the timeframe period ends.
10. If this sounds too complicated, see the example below.

Example

Let's calculate the entry conditions and parameters for an example presented on the chart:

1. It's a EUR/USD H4 chart.
2. The current price is 1.4810, the current bar's open price is 1.4832.
3. There are 4 digits after a dot in the quotes for EUR/USD. That means that the Key value is calculated as 1.4810 * 10 = 14.8. Rounding it results in 15 pips.
4. Pending Buy order level is calculated as 1.4810 + (2 * 15) = 1.4840.
5. Pending Sell order level is calculated as 1.4810 - (2 * 15) = 1.4780.
6. Stop-loss for pending Buy order is calculated as 1.4832 - (2 * 15) = 1.4802.
7. Stop-loss for pending Sell order is calculated as 1.4832 + (2 * 15) = 1.4862.
8. Take-profit for all pending orders is calculated as 1.4810 * 100 = 148.1 or, after rounding, 148 pips.
9. Take-profit for pending Buy order is set to 1.4840 + 148 = 1.4988.
10. Take-profit for pending Sell order is set to 1.4780 - 148 = 1.4632.
11. Trailing stop for both orders is set to 2.5 * 15 = 37.5 or, after rounding, 38 pips.

Credits

This trading system was originally developed by The Forexkid. The version presented here has some minor modifications.

Warning!

Use this strategy at your own risk. EarnForex.com can't be responsible for any losses associated with using any strategy presented on the site. It's not recommended to use this strategy on the real account without testing it on demo first.